[原创翻译]俄专家：运-20批量生产后中国或继续购买伊尔-76

从中国媒体发表的文章看，重型军用运输机运-20有可能今年就将进行批量生产并服役。俄罗斯军事专家在接受卫星网采访时指出，其供应速度将取决于中国独立制造强大战略军用运输机的能力。

根据中国军事专家发表的文章，解放军可能至少需要100架军用运输机，以确保解放军的全球范围行动的机动性，从世界动荡地区疏散本国公民，完成其他确保安全的任务。除此之外，还需要50-60架飞机，用于制造空中加油飞机，远距离侦察机，电子侦察机，电子作战机。

迄今为止中国批量生产的最大型飞机是运-8。1981年开始批量生产，2010年前已制造出169架。平均生产速度为每年5-6架，但实际上头几年的生产速度要低得多。总的来看，中国生产大型飞机的工业潜力不大。

现在中国准备同时生产三种全新款大型飞机，客机C919，运-20和“蛟龙”两栖飞机。同时还在生产中型运输机运-8和运-9，以及远程轰炸机H-6K。

中国面临大力增强生产大型飞机能力的任务。众所周知，为生产运-20，早在2008年就已开始扩家西安飞机制造厂。然而，建设厂房，购买设备，要比培训人员容易得多。

员工人数的迅速扩大，有可能降低培训质量，降低最终产品的质量。即使在进行了一整套试验后，生产新型飞机的速度也不会很快。有可能头几年的年生产速度，只有2-4架。而这意味着，即使很快开始批量生产重型运输机，中国也有可能仍将不得不进口俄罗斯的重型运输机伊尔-76.

其原因是，中国军工的生产能力满足不了解放军对重型运输机数量的需求。中国军队越来越频繁地参加联合国的维和行动，中国已经在吉布提建立了第一个海外军事基地。其他军事基地很有可能紧随其后。中国政府高度重视保护海外的本国公民，从冲突地区疏散本国公民的行动规模也越来越大。

由此可见，重型军用运输机仍将是前景看好的俄中合作方向。

原文地址：https://sputniknews.com/asia/201 ... -military-aircraft/

According to the publications of Chinese military experts, the PLA may require no less than 100 heavy military transport aircraft for the global mobility of its armed forces, conducting evacuation of its citizens from unstable parts of the world and other tasks related to security.
“China's ability to independently build a strong strategic military transport aircraft will be demonstrated by the speed with which they can produce all their new aircraft,” military expert Vasily Kashin told Sputnik.

In addition, another 50-60 vehicles will be needed for production of tanker planes, AWACS aircraft, aircraft for the electronic intelligence and electronic warfare.

Until now, the largest mass-produced aircraft in China was the Y-8. Its production began in 1981 and by 2010, 169 of these giants were put together. The average production rate was thus 5-6 aircraft per year, but in fact, it was much lower in the early years.

In general, the production potential of the Chinese industry for the production of large aircraft was relatively small.

China is now preparing to simultaneously launch three completely new models of large aircraft, i.e. passenger aircraft C919, Y-20 and Xiolung into production. At the same time it plans to continue the production of medium-sized transport aircraft Y-8 / Y-9, as well as long-range bombers H-6K.

It must be kept in mind that the production of new aircraft is time consuming and the training of personnel that will work to manufacture these aircraft is a difficult task.
Such a rapid build-up of the number of employees can lead lower quality training and as a result, could reduce the quality of the final product. It is possible that in the first years we will see the rate of production come up to 2-4 machines per year.

According to the military expert this would mean that even when China will be ready to start mass production of its own aircraft, “It may be forced to rely on importing Russian Il-76 heavy transport aircraft.”

“Requirements for heavy transport aircraft in the PLA can grow faster than the production capacity of the Chinese industry,” Kashin said.

The Chinese Army is increasing its participation in UN peacekeeping operations on other continents. China has its first foreign military base in Djibouti and it is likely to be followed by others.

The Chinese government takes protection of its citizens abroad very seriously and conducts all sorts of complex operations to evacuate its nationals from conflict zones.

Thus, heavy military transport aircraft continues to be a promising area of Russian-Chinese cooperation.