【原创翻译】空间:俄罗斯人改变了他们的想法

发表于 2014-8-19 18:06

本帖最后由 ylj 于 2014-8-19 18:10 编辑

　　http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htspace/articles/20140818.aspx

　　来自战略之页的文章。

　　空间:俄罗斯人改变了他们的想法

　　Space: The Russians Change Their Minds

　　2014年8月18日:多亏了俄罗斯，美国政府不再压力重重，在没有政府融资的情况下研发卫星发射器。同时伴随而来一个问题,因为通常获得这些发射器的渠道被关闭是很危险的,结果是供应不足的火箭承担将所有美国军事卫星送入轨道的任务。

　　August 18, 2014: Thanks to Russia the U.S. government is no longer under pressure to use satellite launchers developed without government financing. That was going to be a problem because one the usual methods of obtaining these launchers was in danger of being shut down, leaving an insufficient supply of rockets to get all American military satellites into orbit.

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　　这一切开始于2014年7月,尽管俄罗斯入侵乌克兰，随后美国制裁了一些俄罗斯官员和公司，俄罗斯还是宣布其不会报复——停止向美国出口RD- 180火箭引擎。

　　This all began in July 2014 when Russia announced that despite their aggression against Ukraine and subsequent U.S. sanctions on some Russian officials and firms, Russia was not going to retaliate by halting shipments of RD-180 rocket engines to the United States.

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　　早在5月份,在俄罗斯宣布将停止RD - 180出口后，美国做了两件事：首先向俄罗斯提出抗议称，停止RD - 180出口是违反合同的,这当然没有多大影响。它还称违反这个特殊的合同在未来对俄罗斯出口将会产生巨大的损失,因为现在许多国家和企业意识到，与俄罗斯公司的合同出于任何理由都可以被俄罗斯政府取消。

　　Back in May, after Russia announced it was going to halt RD-180 shipments the U.S. did two things. First it protested to Russia, without much effect, that halting the RD-180 shipments was breach of contract and that breaching this particular contract would do enormous damage to Russian exports in the future because now many countries and firms realize that a contract with a Russian firm can be cancelled by the Russian government for any reason.

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　　在与俄罗斯做生意时这总是被视为风险，由于俄罗斯作为一个商业伙伴越来越不可靠，许多西方公司在过去十年里拒绝与俄罗斯做生意。

　　This was always seen as a risk when doing business with Russia and many Western firms declined to do so or have pulled out of Russia in the last decade because of the growing unreliability of Russia as a business partner.

　　有很多有关RD - 180事件的宣传,所有这些都不利于未来俄罗斯制成品的出口。欧洲大约三分之一的天然气来自俄罗斯,已经在寻找替代资源,投资者带着他们的钱逃离了俄罗斯。

　　The RD-180 affair got a lot of publicity, all of it bad with regard to future Russian exports of manufactured goods. Europe, which gets about a third of its natural gas from Russia, is already looking for alternate sources and investors are fleeing Russia (and taking their money with them).

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　　俄罗斯确认它将继续出口RD - 180,因为它需要钱。这已不是秘密RD - 180的销售利润维持了几家俄罗斯公司(火箭发动机设计公司和发动机制造商)。

　　Russia admitted that it was going to continue shipping the RD-180s because it needed the money. It was no secret that the profits from the RD-180 sales was keeping several Russian firms (rocket engine design firms and the engine manufacturer) in business.

　　俄罗斯贸易非正式官员曾警告他们的老板，未来出口业务损失的问题,这显然只是说说而已,而非正式提出。

　　Unofficially Russian trade officials had warned their bosses about the problem with the loss of future export business and this was apparently listened to, but could not be mentioned officially.

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　　俄罗斯一直存在腐败问题并且和外国公司有关,俄罗斯官僚主义是众所皆知的难题,但到目前为止仍无法改善。尽管官方立场称制裁没有什么要紧,显然俄罗斯需要出口。

　　The corruption in Russia and the problems foreign firms are having with that, and the eternally difficult Russian bureaucracy are all known problems inside Russia but have proved impossible to fix so far. Russia needs the exports, even though the official line is that the sanctions are not hurting.

　　但是RD - 180有另一个问题。俄罗斯只是停止供货，将迫使美国政府寻找替代资源。事实证明,在美国这样的备用资源是可以找到的,有人显然向俄罗斯领导解释说,鉴于美国和其他外国客户对这些引擎不再使用，打断RD - 180出口是有风险的。

　　But there’s another problem with the RD-180s. But halting shipments Russia simply forces the U.S. government to seek out alternate sources. It turns out that such alternate sources are available in the U.S. and someone apparently explained to the Russian leadership that interrupting shipments of the RD-180s risks seeing the American, and other, foreign customers for these engines disappear.

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　　同时,RD - 180出口对美俄都是一个不错的交易。RD - 180是一个重5.5吨的火箭引擎,高3.56米(11.5英尺),直径3.15米(10.25英尺)，是简单、可靠、有力且廉价的火箭发动机。

　　Meanwhile that the RD-180 exports are a sweet deal for the U.S. and Russia. The RD-180 is a 5.5 ton rocket engine that is a 3.56 meters (11.5 feet) tall and 3.15 meter (10.25 foot) diameter marvel of simple, reliable, powerful and cheap rocket motor design.

　　其开发是在上世纪60年代秘密进行的,一些美国火箭专家(如查尔斯·维克)曾怀疑在冷战期间俄罗斯就拥有这样的便宜、强大且可靠的火箭引擎，但大多数美国火箭专家并未认真考虑这些说法。

　　Developed in secret during the 1960s, some American rocket experts (like Charles Vick) suspected during the Cold War that Russia had cheaper, more powerful and reliable rocket engines like this but these claims were dismissed by most American rocket experts.

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1991年冷战结束后,美国才得以近距离看到俄罗斯的火箭引擎,且意识到维克是正确的。其中一个引擎——RD - 180,供出口,每个约1000万美元。

　　After the Cold War ended in 1991 the U.S. got a close look at Russian rocket engines and realized that Vick was right. One of these engines, the RD-180, was available for export, for about $10 million each.

　　到上世纪90年代末美国一直有长期合同，向俄罗斯购买改装的RD - 180(在美国阿特拉斯生产V型火箭)，并获得许可证在美国建造RD - 180(使用俄罗斯的一些组件,这些组件在美国生产的话成本昂贵)。

　　By the end of the 1990s the U.S. had a long-term contract to buy modified (to work in the American Atlas V rocket) RD-180s from Russia and a license to build RD-180s in the U.S. (using some Russian components that would be much more expensive to manufacture in America).

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美国目前有两年的RD - 180引擎供应。其也有在国内生产RD - 180的许可证。为了维持生产，对于现在俄罗斯供应的组件，它首先必须发展西方供应商，这将耗时5年。

　　The U.S. currently has two years’ supply of RD-180 engines. The U.S. also has a license to produce the RD-180 in the United States. In order to get production going you first have to develop the Western suppliers for all the components now supplied by Russia would take five years.

　　最好的情况是,美国花费额外的25亿美元来投入生产，同时在其他地方获得更加昂贵的发射器。因为这种情况不会发生，所以实际上它可能需要七年才能得以生产RD - 180,至少需要额外的50亿美元来支付替代发射器的成本。

　　Best case is that it would cost the U.S. an additional $2.5 billion dollars to set up production and obtain more expensive launch services elsewhere in the meantime. Since the best case rarely happens it is more likely that it would take seven years to get RD-180 production going and cost at least an additional $5 billion to pay for launch alternatives.

　　许多卫星发射将推迟三年或更久。因此,美国急于恢复购买RD - 180,但同时也在寻求替代资源。

　　Many satellite launches would be delayed three years or more. Thus the U.S. is eager to resume buying RD-180s but is also seeking alternate sources.

　　对于正在研发将火箭送入轨道的新型私营企业,所有这一切都是好消息。其中一个公司就是空间X(太空探索技术公司),其一直试图打破当前卡特尔(垄断联盟)控制的美国政府卫星发射服务。

　　All this was good news for the new private firms that are developing rockets for launching stuff into orbit. One such firm is SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corporation) and is has been trying to break the current cartel controlling U.S. government satellite launch services.

　　从2006年开始,所有这些业务已经被政府所默许的垄断组织——联合发射联盟(ULA)所包揽，联盟由洛克希德·马丁公司(火箭阿特拉斯5生产商)和波音公司(Delta 4生产商)组成。这两家公司占据了美国的太空发射超过半个世纪。

　　Since 2006 all this business has gone to a government-approved monopoly called the ULA (United Launch Alliance) which is composed of Lockheed Martin (Atlas 5 rocket) and Boeing (Delta 4). These two firms have dominated U.S. space launches for over half a century.

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发表于 2014-8-19 19:12

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【原创翻译】空间:俄罗斯人改变了他们的想法

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