【原创翻译】球场变谈判桌：金砖国家发展银行誓将重写历史

　　http://southasia.foreignpolicy.c ... ules_of_development

　　来自外交政策网的文章

　　球场变谈判桌：金砖国家发展银行誓将重写历史

　　安娜·斯旺森、史瑞·维尔马

　　2014年7月11日

　　本月15号，巴西福塔雷萨市将从足球场转变为政治谈判桌。

　　已经举行了今年世界杯多场比赛的这座巴西海滨城市, 将继续承办2014年金砖四国峰会;来自巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非的各国领导人将在此商讨-建立一个期待已久的开发银行-旨在平衡国际货币基金组织和世界银行的影响力。

　　被称为“新开发银行”的金砖四国银行，预计将促进新兴市场国家的金融和发展合作。

　　这一计划尚未最终确定, 但报道称：每一个金砖国家可能会出资100亿美元-作为该实体的初始资本, 由此产生的最大价值额可达1000亿美元。

　　该行还将建立一项1000亿美元的储备基金：中国贡献410亿美元,巴西、俄罗斯和印度分别出资180亿美元,南非则贡献50亿美元。

　　该开发银行的建立,是对西方主导的国际体系的一个历史性挑战, 这表明-五个新兴经济体正在认真考虑他们的伙伴关系。

　　在美国支持的国际货币基金组织(IMF)改革失败的背景下，该组织成立的意义将不可小觑。

　　金砖四国——拥有超过40%的世界人口分布, 其工业产量约占全球的四分之一, 分享了当前世界几乎所有的增长份额——如此看来，该组织似乎将重建其地缘政治的“魔力”。

　　将财富投入到实体建设中

　　创建“金砖四国”开发银行背后的目的是双重的。

　　首先,该行将有利于新兴市场-将过剩资本投入到大型基础设施项目。

　　金砖国家的外汇储备已达到4.4万亿美元, 在发展中国家基础设施的长期融资中，它将为此注入新的活力。

　　通过金砖国家银行进行融资-(可能)不仅可以降低借贷成本, 其所需条件也会比类似的融资机构(世界银行和国际货币基金组织)少许多。

　　在各种干预因素的限制下，亚洲国家可能会发现：金砖国家的银行贷款更有吸引力。

　　第二, 在危机时期和面临外部冲击时，该新实体的货币储备机构可为相关国家提供帮助-特别是针对因发达经济体货币政策引起的大规模汇率波动与变化。

　　自金融危机以来, 美国已经实施了大规模的债券购买计划-即所谓的量化宽松政策(QE),试图重振国内经济。

　　通过将美国利率降至历史低点, 在大量推行宽松货币政策的同时，也促使金融资本流入了新兴市场-为投资者提供了更高回报。

　　但是现在,美国联邦储备理事会(美联储)已经开始缩减或逐渐减少其量化宽松计划, 流向新兴市场的资金已经开始逆转, 这引发了一些组合投资对破坏大批新兴市场的担忧。

　　所以-组建一个新兴市场自己的货币储备机构则是用来抵御冲击的最好办法。从长远来看，尽管新的储备机构不会大到足以控制汇率, 但它可以帮助缓解短期资本外流和汇率波动带来的影响。

　　印度的莫迪时刻

　　在新兴经济体间的贸易和金融流动良性循环领域，金砖四国银行可为其创造新的可能性。

　　如果印度能成功构建其工业实力、升级基础设施、达成经济城市化目标, 它就可能引发下一轮商品繁荣, 这将大大有利于巴西、俄罗斯和南非。

　　像印度这样一个处于过渡阶段、且依赖于新的“流动性”的国家，其融资渠道不仅来自美国和其他的发达市场,而且也来自中国。

　　而资本充裕的中国，已经成为发展中国家中的银行家。

　　人民币是世界上增长最快的主要货币, 也是目前贸易融资中的第二大常用货币。

　　通过金砖四国银行进入人民币融资渠道，可能会刺激更大规模的资本流动，同时还可以简化中国与其他金砖国家之间的贸易程序-包括印度在内。

　　这种可能性为新的金融实体摆脱美国和西欧的控制-提供了一个令人信服的理由。

　　勇敢的新世界

　　在亚洲开发银行ADB, 美国和日本也许可以玩一些类似争端仲裁者的游戏，但这种机制可能会在金砖四国银行失效, 鉴于其强大的经济实力，中国很可能会发挥更大的影响力。

　　即便如此, 新开发银行的政治意义也不应被忽视。

　　在此次金砖四国峰会之前的最近几个月，发生了重要的地缘政治的变化：俄罗斯入侵克里米亚-点燃了西方国家和莫斯科之间的摩擦, 促使俄罗斯和中国之间新型亚洲关系的调整。

　　两国之间4000亿美元的天然气交易是第一笔较大的全球性能源交易-试图绕过美元。

　　尽管金砖国家强调-加强彼此之间的经济和投资关系, 但别忘了-群化管理也可以加强安全利益的汇聚。

　　在2014年的阿富汗，三个主要的利益相关者-俄罗斯、印度和中国已经分享了共同的安全和经济利益, 这增加了其(金砖国家开发银行)在冲突不断的国家-构建三方合作框架的可能性。

　　受经济快速增长浪潮的推动, 近年来-金砖四国已开始将全球经济的天平转向发展中国家倾斜。

　　然而, 在角色扮演方面，国际货币体系仍是由西方国家主导的单极组织。如果金砖四国在即将到来的谈判中取得成功, 新的开发银行可能就标志着：向多极金融秩序迈出的重大一步。

　　原文：

　　IMF: BRICS Bank Aims to Rewrite the Rules of Development

　　BY ANA SWANSON, SHREY VERMA

　　JULY 11, 2014

　　On July 15, the action in Fortaleza will shift from the football pitch to the political high table.

　　The Brazilian seaside city that has hosted many of this year's FIFA World Cup games is scheduled to holdthe 2014 BRICS Summit, where leaders from Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa will meet to establish a long-awaited development bank that aims to balance the influence of the IMF and World Bank.

　　Called "New Development Bank," the BRICS bank is expected to foster greater financial and development cooperation among emerging markets.

　　The plans have yet to be finalized, but reports say each of the BRICS countries may contribute $10 billion in initial capital to the entity, which will have a maximum value of $100 billion.

　　The bank will also establish a $100 billion reserve fund, with China contributing $41 billion, Brazil, Russia and India giving $18 billion each, and South Africa contributing $5 billion.

　　But the establishment of the development bank, a historic challenge to the Western-dominated international system, shows the five emerging economies are taking their partnership seriously.

　　The accomplishment appears that much more significant when viewed against the backdrop of the United States' continued failure to endorse IMF reforms.

　　The BRICS -- a group that represents more than 40 percent of the world's population, about a quarter of global output, and nearly all of the world's current growth -- looks set to regain its geopolitical "mojo."

　　Putting Wealth to Work

　　The purpose behind creating the BRICS's New Development Bank is twofold. First, the bank will benefit emerging markets by putting excess capital to work in financing large infrastructure projects.

　　The BRICS countries have combined foreign-currency reserves of $4.4 trillion that will enable them to inject new vigor into long-term infrastructure financing in the developing world.

　　Financing carried out through the BRICS bank will likely not only entail lower borrowing costs, but also fewer conditions than similar financing arrangements with the World Bank and the IMF.

　　Asian countries that have balked at this kind of interventionism may find BRICS bank loans appealing.

　　Second, the new entity will function as a currency reserve to aid countries in times of crisis and external shocks, especially against massive currency fluctuations caused by changes in monetary policy in advanced economies.

　　Since the financial crisis, the United States has embarked on a massive bond-buying program known as quantitative easing (QE) in an attempt to reinvigorate its domestic economy.

　　By pushing U.S. interest rates to historic lows, this flood of easy money also spurred financial flows into emerging markets, which have offered investors higher returns.

　　But now that the U.S. Federal Reserve has begun scaling back or "tapering" its QE program, that flow of funds to emerging markets has begun to reverse -- sparking concerns that an exodus of portfolio investment could destabilize emerging markets.

　　A currency reserve for emerging markets is the best way to soften the blow. While the proposed reserve will not be large enough to rein in exchange rates in the long term, it could help cushion the short-term impact of capital outflows and exchange-rate volatility.

　　India's Modi Moment

　　The BRICS bank could open up the possibility for new and virtuous cycles of trade and financial flows among emerging economies.

　　If India succeeds in building out its industrial capacity, upgrading its infrastructure, and urbanizing its economy, it could trigger the next commodity boom that will benefit Brazil, Russia, and South Africa.

　　Such a transition in India would likely depend on a new "tide of liquidity" originating not only from the United States and other developed markets, but also China.

　　Flush with capital, China is already emerging as the banker to the developing world.

　　The renminbi is the fastest-growing major currency in the world today and is the second-most commonly used currency in trade finance.

　　Access to renminbi financing through the BRICS bank could spur greater capital flows and streamline trade between China and the rest of the BRICS, including India.

　　This possibility makes a compelling case for a new financial entity outside the control of the United States and Western Europe.

　　Brave New World

　　At the ADB, the United States and Japan can play arbiter to such disputes. But this mechanism may be absent in the BRICS bank, where China will likely exercise greater leverage due to its economic strength.

　　Even so, the political significance of the New Development Bank should not be lost on anyone.

　　The BRICS summit comes on the heels of significant geopolitical shifts in recent months. The Russian invasion of Crimea has reignited frictions between the West and Moscow, prompting a new Asian realignment between Russia and China.

　　The $400 billion gas deal between the two countries is the first major global energy transaction that seeks to bypass the U.S. dollar.

　　Even as the BRICS forge stronger economic and investment ties, the grouping could also strengthen due to converging security interests.

　　The three major stakeholders, Russia, India and China, already share common security and economic interests in a post-2014 Afghanistan, raising the possibility of a trilateral framework of cooperation in the strife-ridden country.

　　Buoyed by a rising tide of rapid economic growth, the BRICS have shifted the global economic balance toward the developing world in recent years.

　　However, the international monetary system remains unipolar in character and dominated by the West.

　　If the BRICS succeed in their upcoming negotiations, the New Development Bank could mark a significant step toward a multipolar financial order.