【原创翻译】美媒：朝鲜火箭老化 多已当做“烟雾弹”处理

　　http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htiw/articles/20140912.aspx

       来自战略之页的文章

　　美媒：朝鲜火箭老化 多已当做“烟雾弹”处理

　　2014年9月12日: 在过去的几年里，朝鲜发射了许多非制导远程火箭。这些火箭均射向沿海水域, 通常是东海岸(这里的海运和渔船活动相对较少)。

　　朝鲜发射火箭通常是为了表达某种抗议或仅仅是为了得到一些媒体的关注。朝鲜有几千枚这样的远程火箭，多已老化且需要翻新、立即使用或退役。这是因为固体燃料火箭的马达机能会随着时间的流逝降低-像其他组件一样。在某种程度上，这些火箭会变得不可靠，还会给使用的士兵带来危险。

Information Warfare: Style And Substance In North Korea

　　September 12, 2014: North Korea has fired more and more unguided long-range rockets in the last few years.

　　These are fired into coastal waters, usually off the east coast (where there is less shipping and fishing boat activity).

　　North Korea usually fires rockets as a form of protest or simply to get some media attention.

　　North Korea has several thousand of these long range rockets and many of them are old and need to be refurbished, used or taken out of service.

　　That’s because the solid fuel rocket motors degrade with age as do other components. At a certain point these rockets become unreliable and even dangerous to their crews if used.
　　朝鲜支付不起翻新这些旧火箭所需的大量开支, 所以发射其中一些用于宣传目的(或威慑)还是有意义的。

　　这些发射，许多未在朝鲜、外国媒体和韩国报道，美国官员(包括军事和外交官员)已经学会忽视所有这些举动, 因为它们并不真正意味着什么, 并且从来没有意味着什么。

　　几十年来，朝鲜一直在做这样的事情, 且都是为了传递某种信息, 并没有用于传统意义上的冲突。

　　North Korea can’t afford to refurb a lot of these old rockets, so firing some of them for propaganda purposes makes sense.

　　Many of these firings go unreported in North Korean and foreign media and South Korean and American officials (both military and diplomatic) have learned to ignore all these firings because they don’t really mean anything and never did.

　　North Korea has been doing this sort of thing for decades and it’s all about Information War, not more conventional conflict.

　　弹道导弹的发射也体现了这种思维, 尽管这些导弹通常是液体燃料, 其建造和维护费用较昂贵且有更长的射程。这些导弹都以老化而且维护成本太高。

　　许多年代较久的-尤其是在旧式俄罗斯飞毛腿短程导弹基础上设计(20世纪50年代)的导弹-被一些媒体误解为导弹试验,其实不然。

　　Ballistic missiles are also fired off in this manner, although these missiles are usually liquid fueled, more expensive to build and maintain and have a longer range.

　　These missiles also get old and too expensive to maintain. Many of the oldest ones, especially the shorter ranged ones based on the old (1950s) Russian SCUD design.

　　Some media misinterpret this as missile tests, which they rarely are.
       技术分析师指出,最近发射的许多弹道导弹设计-据说可以渗透到太平洋, 甚至可以发射小型卫星-失败率比西方(甚至俄罗斯或中国)的弹道导弹还要高。

　　结论是,尽管朝鲜显然还有导弹发展计划，但他们没有足够的钱来迅速完善技术, 甚至大规模生产他们认为起作用的东西。

　　因此, 朝鲜弹道导弹项目-像朝鲜的其他行业一样-只是一种形式而远非实物。


　　Technical analysts have noted that many of the more recent ballistic missile designs, which can reach far out into the Pacific and even launch small satellites, are failing at a higher rate than Western, or even Russian or Chinese ballistic missiles.

　　The conclusion is that while the North Koreans obviously still have a missile development program they don’t have sufficient money to perfect their tech rapidly, or even mass produce they stuff that does work.

　　Thus the North Korean ballistic missile program is, like so much else in North Korea, more style than substance.