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然而，尽管日本在该地区的软实力和经济影响力都有了较大提升，日本所产生的只是边际性影响，很难被认真对待。部分原因是，美国是该地区安全与稳定的终极保护者。虽然短时期内，美国所发挥的全局作用不会改变，但随着日本外交政策强劲发展--旨在谋求日本海外利益和加强影响力投射——日本选择插手国际社会关注的东南亚和南中国海事务，会使区域局势随时发生变化。
文章认为，日本对南中国海争端和东南亚感兴趣，主要有两个原因。首先，南海水域局势紧张可能会扰乱海上重要交通线路的自由通行，这对资源贫乏的日本经济和生存来说是至关重要的。第二，日本官员正密切关注，中国将如何处理各种岛屿争端，以便从中推测中国可能在中日钓鱼岛问题上采取什么样的措施。
继中国在2013年11月设立东海防空设别区以来，外界普遍猜测，中国也会在南海采取类似行动(中国始终否认这一点)。鉴于此，南海问题和钓鱼岛争端两者之间的关联性很明显。不过，扩大这种关联性的存在也会产生负面效应——通过使用或威胁使用武力解决争端——将会成为处理其他纠纷的反面例子。日本也会在捍卫自身利益，高举和平解决争端的旗帜伪装下，通过军事威慑支持南中国海周边国家与中国抗衡。
文章还认为，美国将支持日本的这一安全态势举动，使其更加自信地与东南亚伙伴合作。在接受路透社的一次采访中，美国第七舰队的指挥官海军上将罗伯特·托马斯曾表示，“在该地区盟友、合作伙伴和朋友将会对日本维护地区稳定的力量。”托马斯是在暗示，日本可以在起到离岸平衡器的作用，这也意味着，日本可以帮助相关国家解决冲突，帮助较弱的争议方“抗衡”中国。托马斯还说，“坦率地说，在南海，中国的渔船、海岸警卫队和海军实力要远远超过其他国家。…我认为JMSDF(日本海上自卫队)未来有必要在南中国海活动。”
对于托马斯海军上将的以上言论，日本作出回应说，将会考虑在南海空中和海上巡逻，但目前没有这样的计划。日防卫大臣中谷元告诉记者，“各国之间的相互依赖关系正在增加和深化，南海局势也会影响到我们的国家安全。所以，这一议题也将成为日本需要面对的问题。”
文章最后指出，尽管日本声称南中国海事关日本国家利益，但日本将会非常仔细地考量下一步怎么走。就目前来看，日本最有可能仍把重点放在能力建设以及帮助友好国家-如菲律宾和印尼增强实力上，美其名曰帮助他们管理纠纷。
日本越来越多地插手南海问题可以展示其与美国共担区域安全责任的意图，但也会对本就紧张的中日关系产生负面影响。不过，在可预见的未来，能力建设-而不是巡逻，将会是日本在东南亚军事行动的最好定位。
源文：
http://thediplomat.com/2015/02/j ... th-china-sea-issue/
Japan Wades Into South China Sea Issue
Japan is becoming more involved in the South China Sea disputes through increased outreach to Southeast Asian partners.
Mina Pollmann
By Mina Pollmann
February 06, 2015
In the 1970s, when Japan first sought to craft a foreign policy identity independent of the U.S., it turned to Southeast Asia. Though Japanese Prime Minister Tanaka Kakuei’s 1974 trip was greeted with protests, relations quickly improved with the 1977 promulgation of the Fukuda Doctrine, which promised that Japan would never again become a military power. Since then, Japan has been seen positively in Southeast Asia as a mentor and constructive partner.
However, despite this reservoir of soft power and major economic clout in the region, Japan has only been able to exercise marginal influence and has had difficulty being taken seriously. Part of the reason is that the U.S. remains the ultimate guarantor of security and stability in the region.
And while the overall U.S. role will not change any time soon, regional dynamics are in flux as Japan develops a more robust foreign policy that seeks to promote Japanese interests and project influence abroad — starting in Southeast Asia, where disputes over islands in the South China Sea have attracted international attention.
Japan is interested in the South China Sea disputes gripping Southeast Asia for two main reasons. First, any tension in these waters could disrupt the free flow of traffic through critical sea lines, which are vital for resource-poor Japan’s economy and survival.
Second, Japanese officials are closely monitoring how China handles these island disputes to try to discern how China might try to deal with Japan in their ongoing dispute over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea.
The interconnectedness of these two issues is evident in the rife speculation that China might unilaterally declare an Air Defense Identification Zone in the South China Sea after it did so in the East China Sea in November 2013 (speculation which China has consistently denied).
Such interconnectedness also leads to concerns that a negative outcome – a resolution of a dispute through the use or threat of the use of force – could set a precedent that affects other disputes.
By supporting front-line states in the South China Sea, Japan sees itself as defending its own interests by upholding the norm of peaceful resolution, ironically, through military deterrence.
The U.S. would endorse a move in Japan’s security posture toward greater assertiveness and collaboration with Southeast Asian partners. Admiral Robert Thomas, commander of the Seventh Fleet, said in an interview to Reuters, “I think allies, partners and friends in the region will look to the Japanese more and more as a stabilizing function.”
Adm. Thomas went as far as to imply an offshore balancer role for Japan, meaning that Japan would help forestall conflict by helping the weaker disputants “balance” China. Adm. Thomas said, “In the South China Sea, frankly, the Chinese fishing fleet, the Chinese coast guard and the (navy) overmatch their neighbors. … I think that JMSDF (Japan Maritime Self Defense Forces) operations in the South China Sea makes sense in the future.”
Since Adm. Thomas’ interview, Japan has responded that it would consider air and sea patrols in the South China Sea, though there are currently no such plans. Defense Minister Gen Nakatani told reporters, “The interdependence of nations is increasing and deepening, and the situation in the South China Sea affects our national security. The way our nation handles this will be an issue going forward.”
While hewing to the principle of Nakatani’s assurance that the South China Sea affects Japan’s national interests, Japan’s next steps will evolve very carefully. For the time being, Japan is most likely to remain focused on capacity-building, helping increase the capabilities of friendly states, such as the Philippines and Indonesia, to manage the disputes.
Becoming more involved in the South China Sea issue would demonstrate Japan’s sincerity in sharing the regional security burden with the U.S. but would have negative repercussions for an already strained Sino-Japanese relationship. Capacity-building, not patrols, will define Japanese military engagement in Southeast Asia for the foreseeable future.
作者: 好吃懒做 时间: 2015-2-6 18:53
作者: 田舍郎 时间: 2015-2-6 19:33
作者: nebula 时间: 2015-2-6 23:22
作者: 竹子明 时间: 2015-2-7 01:10
作者: 火星来客 时间: 2015-2-7 08:11
作者: zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz 时间: 2015-2-7 10:49
作者: 重修 时间: 2015-2-7 16:39
标题: 踏着小鬼子的躯体前进
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