【原创翻译】越南“基洛级”潜艇到货:将对中国形成威慑 - 鼎盛网

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　　2014年9月9日
Vietnam's China Challenge: Making Asymmetric Deterrence Work

　　With its new Kilo-class subs, Vietnam will implement an asymmetric area denial strategy against China.

　　By Ankit Panda

　　September 09, 2014
　　今年早先时候的南海事件表明：越南政府不会后悔自己在2009年做出的投资决定-购买俄罗斯六艘“基洛级”潜艇-交易价值达26亿美元。

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　　虽然这一军购项目早已确立，但今年早些时候中国在越南“专属经济区”设立981移动钻井平台的事件戏剧性地证明了：越南政府购买这些潜艇并将其纳入不对称反介入/区域封锁(A2 / AD)战略的策略是正确的。

　　越南的“基洛级”潜艇可以显著改变当前中国和越南之间的战略平衡态势。

　　As events this year have shown, the Vietnamese government won’t suffer any buyer’s remorse regarding its decision to invest in six Russian Kilo-class submarines in a 2009 deal worth $2.6 billion.

　　The government’s decision to both purchase these submarines and incorporate them strategically into a burgeoning asymmetric anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strategy were vindicated over the course of the dramatic saga earlier this year involving China moving its oil rig HYSY-981 into Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ).

　　Vietnam’s Kilos could significantly alter the current balance between China and Vietnam.

　　然而, 中国人民解放军并非一支远征力量,它仍不具备进攻-用潜艇为其区域封锁战略护航对手-的能力。

　　有专家曾这样表述：中国的大多数反潜战系统, 如056型护卫舰、Y-8海上巡逻机和水声传感器“在有效性方面仍然依赖于中国的近海基地。”

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　　此外, 越南即将部署的“基洛级”柴电动力潜艇是最具隐秘性的潜艇-据猜测，它们比解放军的12艘“基洛级”潜艇更先进。

　　总之, 随着“基洛级”潜艇的到来, 越南可以在对华战略平衡方面变得更加主动，而北京方面部署到“越南(声称拥有主权)水域”的水面舰艇也将面临更大风险。
However, as a largely non-expeditionary force, the PLAN remains rather ill-equipped to stage an offensive against an opponent employing a submarine-enforced area denial strategy.

　　As Robert Farley has described in these pages, most Chinese ASW systems, like the Type 056 Corvette, the Y-8 maritime patrol aircraft, and underwater acoustic sensors ”still depend on proximity to Chinese bases for effectiveness.”

　　Further, the diesel-electric Kilos that Vietnam is slated to deploy are among the quietest submarines and are speculated to be more advanced than the PLAN’s 12 Kilo-class submarines.

　　In sum, with its Kilo-class acquisition, Vietnam is tipping the balance in its favor and substantially increasing Beijing’s perceived risk in deploying its surface ships into waters claimed by Vietnam.

　　不过，回想今年早些时候发生的事件, 越南第一艘“基洛级”潜艇的部署似乎有点滞后。

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　　路透社的一份新报告指出,“最近有人发现，越南的首批两艘潜艇正在海岸进行训练。”

　　在回答路透社的评论提问时, 一位匿名的越南官员指出：“基洛级”潜艇不是我们唯一的武器, 它只是我们正在发展的、用以更好维护国家主权的众多武器的一部分。

　　在这方面, 潜艇将主要用于防御。

　　Given events earlier this year, the Vietnamese are wasting little time in operationalizing the first of their Kilos.

　　A new Reuters report states that “the first two submarines have recently been sighted plying the Vietnamese coast on training runs.”

　　In comments to Reuters, an anonymous Vietnamese official notes that that the Kilos “are not our sole weapon, but part of a number of weapons we are developing to better protect our sovereignty.

　　In that regard, the submarines will be defensive.”

　　如果河内可以通过新潜艇计划成功实现其非对称区域封锁战略, 北京方面很可能会专注于应对菲律宾的领土主张-因为这样做的障碍会少一点。

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　　现在的菲律宾海军，(在很大程度上)仍不具备使用潜艇和现代水面舰艇的能力。

　　当然, 尽管“基洛级”潜艇将是越南海上战略的关键, 但这并不是越南军方唯一关注的领域。

　　If Hanoi successfully implements its asymmetric area denial strategy with the use of its new submarines, it is likely that Beijing may focus on enforcing its territorial claims against the Philippines, where the barriers to doing so are substantially lower.

　　The Philippine navy largely lacks submarine capabilities and modern surface ships.

　　Of course, while the Kilos will be a lynchpin of Vietnam’s maritime strategy, they aren’t the only area of focus for the Vietnamese military.

　　去年8月, 在越南冯光青将军对俄罗斯访问后不久, 我们了解到：越南将双倍购买苏霍伊的多用途战斗机, 并为其装备反舰导弹。

　　“981钻井平台危机以来, 越南国内流行的激进言论反映了：河内政府对中国在南海行动的敏感性。