【原创翻译】北约称俄侵略成性反俄言论或引发新对抗 - 鼎盛网

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　　据德国媒体报道，在将于9月4日开幕的北约峰会上，俄罗斯可能会被正式认定为该组织的威胁。此外，北约还打算在东欧部署五个军事基地。俄罗斯政治学家认为，这些计划虽然并不能构成严重威胁，但不排除克里姆林宫可能因历史经验决定的猜疑心理而做出激烈反应。

　　According to German media outlets, NATO may officially declare Russia a threat to the alliance at the opening of its summit in Wales on September 4. The organization also has plans to establish five military bases in Eastern Europe.

　　Although Russian political scientists do not believe the plans pose a serious threat, they are not ruling out a disproportionate reaction by the Kremlin, citing suspicion dictated by historical experience as a key factor.

　　莫斯科高等经济学校世界政治教研室高级讲师德米特里·苏斯洛夫在接受《透视俄罗斯》记者采访时说，此次峰会将定位欧洲的国际关系新现状，抛弃欧洲安全不可分割的理念，开启北约与俄罗斯关系对抗的新现实。他认为，峰会上将会做出的重大决策包括宣布北约扩大在其新成员国境内的军事基础设施，在波罗的海国家、波兰和罗马尼亚建设新基地。

　　“This summit serves as a record of the new state of international relations in Europe, a departure from the concept of the indivisibility of European security, and the start of a new confrontational reality in relations between the alliance and Russia,” said Dmitry Suslov, senior lecturer at the Global Policy Department of the Higher School of Economics in Moscow.

　　Suslov believes that the key decisions taken at the summit will include a declaration to expand NATO’s military infrastructure into the territory of its newer members, and to open new NATO bases in the Baltic states, Poland, and Romania.

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　　此外，北约成员国还可能重新修订战略构想，将对俄关系新现状写入其中，俄罗斯将被定位为北约安全的威胁和挑战，而不是北约的合作伙伴。最后，遏制俄罗斯可能再次被确定为北约的目标之一。

　　“Furthermore, the members of the alliance might start working to revise NATO’s strategic conception with the aim of prescribing a new state of relations with Russia, which will be positioned as a threat and challenge to NATO security, and not as a partner,” said Suslov, adding that NATO “could again refer to Russian containment as one of its objectives.”

　　不过，俄罗斯政治学家们认为，北约在对俄关系上从未采取过友好立场。欧洲与国际研究中心主任季莫菲·博尔达切夫在接受《透视俄罗斯》记者采访时说，近几个月来，已经听惯了俄罗斯不再是战略合作伙伴、莫斯科不值得信任的论调。从实际情况看，这并无多少新意。至于大幅增强其在俄罗斯边境地区的力量，北约并未做好准备。

　　Meanwhile, Russian political scientists say NATO has never been friendly towards the Kremlin.

　　“In the last several months we have already gotten used to talk of Russia no longer being a strategic partner and of not being able to trust Moscow,” Timofei Bordachev, director of the Center for European and International Research, told RBTH.

　　“From a practical standpoint, it’s unlikely to bring anything new. And the NATO countries aren’t ready to seriously expand their potential on the border with Russia,” he added.

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　　有政治专家认为，北约不想因乌克兰危机而与俄关系严重恶化。俄罗斯政治学家、“对外政策”分析机构管理合伙人安德烈·苏申佐夫对《透视俄罗斯》记者说道，事实确实如此，虽然可能会有一些关于修订欧洲内部边境和俄罗斯侵略成性的仪式性表态，但从未来20-30年看，他们需要俄罗斯以维系“西方社会”在国际政治中的优势地位，因此会尽量不刺激莫斯科。

　　Several Russian commentators are of the opinion that NATO has no desire to sour relations with Moscow over the Ukraine crisis.

　　“Yes, there might be some ritualistic phrases on redrawing borders in Europe and on Russian aggression, but they will need Russia in the long-term (20 to 30 years) in order to keep the conventional superiority of ‘Western society’ in world politics, so they’ll try not to provoke Moscow,” Andrei Sushentsov, political scientist and managing partner at the Vneshnyaya Politika (Foreign Policy) analytical agency, told RBTH.

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　　德米特里·苏斯洛夫认为，正因为如此，本届峰会上北约向前苏联加盟共和国扩张的问题会暂时被搁置。许多国家会提出必须在此次峰会的最终宣言中提及接受乌克兰和格鲁吉亚的可能性。不过，苏斯洛夫希望关键欧洲国家(法国和德国)会反对这样的表述，因为此类暗示只会加重俄罗斯与北约国家之间的对抗。

　　It is for this reason that NATO will put talk of expanding the alliance to include other post-Soviet states on the backburner.

　　“A lot of countries will talk about the need to mention the possibility of accepting Ukraine and Georgia into the alliance in the final declaration for the summit,” said Suslov.

　　“However, I am hoping that the key European countries - France and Germany - will oppose this wording, because such hints will merely bolster the antagonism between Russia and the NATO countries,” Suslov said.

　　但克里姆林宫可能会对北约决定做出激烈反应，并以激进举措回报适度举措。这其中有多个原因。

　　However, there remains a possibility that the Kremlin may take a hard line with NATO and meet its moderate measures with radical steps. There are several reasons this is a likely scenario.

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　　首先，俄罗斯与北约的合作范围很窄，以至于莫斯科对于制裁并无适度反应的选择。为数不多的适度反应可能是在阿富汗问题上重新审视与北约的关系。然而这一施压杠杆的重要性近年来已大大下降。

　　Firstly, the spectrum for cooperation between Russia and NATO is so narrow that Moscow lacks moderate options for retaliatory sanctions. One of the few moderate responses available to it would be to rethink its relations with NATO in Afghanistan. However, the value of this instrument of pressure has plummeted recently.

　　德米特里·苏斯洛夫称，双方在阿富汗问题上合作的重要性一直在稳步下降。在直升机方面的继续合作也很成问题(指由美国出资采购俄罗斯直升飞机提供给阿富汗政府，并由俄罗斯提供售后服务)，而在过境运输问题上，通过俄罗斯领土的货物和人员也一直在稳步减少。

　　“The significance of cooperation on Afghanistan is on the steady decline. It remains to be seen whether our cooperation on the ‘helicopter package’ [supplies of Russian helicopters to the Afghan authorities using Pentagon money, as well as helicopter maintenance – RBTH] will continue. As for transit, the flow of freight and personnel through Russian territory is steadily declining,” Suslov said.