【原创翻译】东南亚国家加强本土防御试图在南海牵制中国 - 鼎盛网

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　　北京称对中国南海9/10的水域拥有主权，并且加强了在争议水域的军事存在。许多东南亚国家也宣称对岛屿以及该地区的领土诉有主权。原因是该地区拥有丰富的鱼类资源，蕴藏着丰富的石油和天然气储量。

　　Beijing, which claims about nine-tenths of the South China Sea, has beefed up its maritime presence in disputed waters. A number of Southeast Asian countries also lay competing claims to islands and territories located in the area, which is believed to be rich in fish stocks as well as contain huge oil and gas reserves.

　　与中国在争议海域的紧张局势已经使得一些东南亚国家加强自己的国防工业，减少对美国和欧洲武器供应商的依赖。

　　Tensions with China over the disputed waters have spurred a number of Southeast (SE) Asian countries to boost their defense industries and decrease their dependence on US and European arms suppliers.

　　斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所的数据表明，2013年，东南亚国家的国防预算达到359亿美元，较之前增长了5%，预计到2016年将增长至400亿美元。斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所称，自1992年以来，该地区的国防开支已经增长了一倍多。此外，据美国估计，中国去年的军费开支超过了1450亿美元。

　　Data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) shows that Southeast Asia’s defense budget rose five percent to 35.9 billion USD in 2013 and is expected to grow to 40 billion USD by 2016. SIPRI says the region’s defense spending has more than doubled since 1992. On the other hand, China’s military spending topped 145 billion USD last year, according to US estimates.

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　　拥有强大的国内国防工业是东盟10个成员国家的一个长期的经济和安全目标。为此，东盟国家为保持该地区的军事平衡，已经在军事装备现代化方面投入了大量资金。

　　A strong domestic defense industry is a long-term economic as well as security goal for the ten-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which is spending more money on modernizing worn-out military equipment partly to retain the region’s military balance.

　　各种不同的回应

　　斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所军费开支研究项目负责人萨姆·佩洛—弗里曼指出，尽管如此，但是整个地区的支出增加的范畴不同。正如东南亚国家军费开支增加的比例不同一样，其原因也是多种多样。

　　Varied responses

　　Sam Perlo-Freeman, head of the Military Expenditure Programme at SIPRI, points out, nonetheless, that the increase in spending is not homogenous throughout the region. “There is considerable variation amongst the Southeast Asian nations in the rates of increase of their military spending, and so are the reasons for it,” the expert told DW.

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　　而且这并不总是与中国在争议海域的行动有关。弗里曼补充说，显然，只有越南增加军费开支是为了应对中国在南海日益增长的军事实力和行动。

　　And it is not always linked to China’s actions in disputed waters. “Only Vietnam’s increase is clearly a response to China’s growing military power and actions in the South China Sea,” he adds.

　　柬埔寨和泰国并不参与这些领土争端。而该地区的其他国家，如马来西亚、新加坡和台湾，近年来军费开支增长趋势很平稳。

　　Cambodia and Thailand are not parties to these territorial disputes, and other countries in the region, such as Malaysia, Singapore and Taiwan have made only very modest increases in their military spending in recent years, the expert added.

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　　尽管海上冲突是造成关系紧张的一个主要原因，但是没有任何证据可以表明中国对该地区的武装冲突感兴趣。佩洛—弗里曼认为，这可能会给经济带来灾难性的后果。中国在该地区的军事实力依旧具有压倒性的优势，而且中国试图利用这种优势来确立对水域的主权，并且获得对更多争议水域的有效控制。

　　Despite the fact that the maritime conflict is a major reason for tensions, there is little evidence that China is interested in an armed conflict in the region. “It could have disastrous economic consequences. It is therefore likely that China will continue to use its overwhelming preponderance in military capability in the region to try to establish ‘facts on the water’ and gain effective control of more of the disputed areas,” Perlo-Freeman said.

　　国际战略研究所亚太地区安全对话—香格里拉对话高级研究员钟威廉认为，中国的邻国承认中国的崛起，并且在这地区有着固有的地位。但是，他们不接受的是，中国政府不遵守公认的行为准则。

　　William Choong, a Shangri-La Dialogue Senior Fellow for Asia-Pacific Security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), says that China’s neighbors “do acknowledge the country’s rise and that it has a natural place in this part of the world,” however, “what they don’t accept is that Beijing is not adhering to generally accepted norms of behavior,” the analyst told DW.

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　　对美国的依赖

　　加强和扩大本国的国防工业并不意味着东南亚国家间高停止对美国和其他西方国家国防供应商的依赖。相反，不断增加的军事需求使得该地区吸引了很多欧洲和北美的武器制造商。

　　Reliance on the US

　　The focus on strengthening and expanding local defense industries, however, does not mean that Southeast Asian countries will stop relying on the US and other Western defense suppliers. On the contrary, the increasing military needs make the region attractive for weapons manufacturers in Europe and North America.

　　斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所军费开支、武器生产和武器转让项目的负责人认为，这就是东南亚许多国家依赖美国的原因。

　　Aude Fleurant, director of SIPRI’s Military Expenditure, Arms Production and Arms Transfers Programme, is of the view that many countries in Southeast Asia rely on the US for a number of reasons.

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　　在全球范围内，该地区的稳定以及主要贸易航线的运输畅通仍旧依赖于美国的安全保障和军事存在。然而，长期存在的领土和主权诉求，例如中国南海，使得该地区的紧张局势增加，武器收购之风盛行。

　　“At the global level, both the region’s stability and the uninterrupted use of vital trade routes still depend on US security guarantees and its military presence. However, longstanding competing territorial and sovereignty claims, such as those over the South China Sea, are increasing tensions and driving a process of weapons acquisition in the region’s states,” Fleurant told DW.

　　专家认为，对这些国家而言，完全依赖于美国来保障安全将是一个错误，因为合作伙伴只是完成自己的部分，独自完成会冒着很大的风险，特别是在面对日益强大的中国时。美国在该地区扮演的角色只是一个中心演员而已，并且在可预见的未来会一直保持。

　　However, Fleurant also believes that for these countries, depending exclusively on the US for security “would be a mistake, as partners are expected to ‘do their part’ but going it alone would also be very risky when faced with an increasingly powerful China.” The US remains a central actor in the region, and this will likely remain the case for the foreseeable future, she adds.